Are most LLM judges reliable?
No. A 2025 benchmark tested 54 LLMs as judges, 43 open-source models from 1 billion to 405 billion parameters plus 11 closed ones, scoring RAG and agentic outputs against human ground truth. Only 27 of the 54, exactly half, reached what the study calls reliable agreement with human judgment: 23 tracked the natural variation between human raters themselves, and 4 agreed even more consistently than humans agree with each other. The other half didn’t clear that bar.
The split didn’t track model size. The study found judge quality came down to how a model was trained to evaluate, not how large it was, so picking the biggest available model isn’t a safe shortcut to a reliable judge. Measuring a specific judge’s own accuracy against your own labeled cases is still the only way to know where the one you picked lands, since a benchmark average says nothing about its performance on your particular grading task.